Employers in the Mining and Construction sector most likely to add employees reveals Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released on 13 December 2011 reports that Hong Kong employers anticipate a respectable hiring pace during Quarter 1 of 2012. After removing seasonal variations from survey data, Hong Kong’s Net Employment Outlook[1] stands at +14%[2]. Hiring prospects weaken by 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 6 percentage points year-over-year.
While 18% of the 807 employers surveyed expect to add employees in the first quarter of 2012, only 4% expect to reduce staffing levels. Meanwhile, 73% of employers surveyed forecast no employment changes in the next quarter.
Employers in all six industry sectors surveyed report positive hiring activity in Q1 2012. However, hiring prospects strengthen in only two of the six industry sectors quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, employer hiring intentions improve in only one of the six sectors.
The most positive hiring intentions are reported in the Mining & Construction sector, where the Outlook stands strong at +26%; improves by 3 and 7 percentage points, respectively, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.
“According to government statistics, the Construction sector expects an increase in staffing levels due to the favourable expectations to increase business/output. Despite a recent slowdown of the residential market, infrastructure projects are expected to take up the slack in the next few years. Employment prospects remain keen due to mega projects such as the cross-delta bridge linking Lantau Island with Macau and Zhuhai, and the expanded railway lines project, all of which will continue to elevate workforce demand. Employers are also facing the problem of a shortage of skilled workers stemming from retirement of an experienced older workforce without adequate replacements. Nevertheless, the Government’s forecast of 14,000 payroll gains in the Construction sector will continue to keep the sector in a positive light. Likewise, demand for quantity surveying talent continues to grow with a view to managing project costs,” Ms Lancy Chui, Managing Director of ManpowerGroup Hong Kong, Macau and Vietnam operations explained.
Hiring pace of the Finance, Real Estate & Insurance sector will slow in the quarter ahead, reporting an Outlook of +20%, weakened by 8 and 4 percentage points, respectively, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.
“Some European and U.S. banks have begun digging-in for slower growth and leaner margins next year, by ramping up their cost containment efforts. Several major financial institutions have already announced cuts to their staff, and many analysts are speculating that there will be additional rounds of layoffs in 2012. Others institutions are focusing on process improvement and are seriously considering outsourcing non-core functions to a contingent workforce,” added Ms Chui. “However, the uncertain global market conditions recently plaguing us have tightened overall hiring activities across the banking and finance sector. Nevertheless, within other areas of the financial sector, there is still demand for talent in areas such as consumer banking, personal loan, and front-line revenue-generating positions, together with compliance areas due to the tightened banking regulations to boost market demand for compliance candidates.”
“On the property front, declining property transactions weaken hiring intentions,” said Ms Chui. “Whilst on the insurance horizon, we are also seeing leading insurance companies aggressively expanding their agent workforce to help boost revenue.”
Employers in the Services sector predict respectable job growth with an Outlook of +18%, moderate declines of 8 and 7 percentage points, respectively, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.
“Hiring prospects weaken in the Services sector, including catering, cleaning and security personnel services, from last quarter as employers have generally increased staff’s remuneration to adhere to statutory minimum wage requirements. These concessions naturally exert pressure on employers’ ability to hire,” said Ms Chui.
She continued, “The volatile market situation promotes positive job prospects for IT contract jobs as employers are keen to hire project-based IT staff. The ongoing popularity of smart phones and continued evolution of tablets has also triggered employment demand for talent with expertise and knowledge in telecom products and services. Job prospects remain steady elsewhere in hotel industry with favourable fourth-quarter room occupancy rate.”
Employers of the Transportation & Utilities sector predict steady workforce gains, +15%; the Outlook slightly improves by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but drops 4 percentage points year-over-year.
“Although October export growth was lower due to weak demand generated by increased Euro-zone debt, employment plans within aviation and logistics companies remain on the up. Tougher market challenges may impact bulk purchase of container carriers to move goods by sea, but automotive and air freight companies appear able to scale operations in order to move goods in smaller quantity,” Ms Chui explained. “Recent reports indicate that inbound visitor numbers continue to remain high. Visitors are coming, primarily from the mainland China, and marginal increases from other South East Asia regions are also noted which will continue to improve hiring activities for airline related roles.”
Steady workforce gains are anticipated in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, +12%; despite moderate declines of 7 and 6 percentage points, quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively.
“September retail sales expanded appreciably as mainland China shoppers continued spending, and local consumption demand stayed fairly vibrant. This has helped maintain confidence and drive employer hiring plans to cope with projected business growth,” said Ms Chui.
She commented, “Overall, employer hiring plans remain upbeat - quite remarkable considering that, for the past three years, Hong Kong has consistently ranked as one of the top two most expensive cities for retailers to rent, according to a recent real estate research.”
Employers in the Manufacturing sector forecast the weakest hiring climate, +6% since Q4 2009, reporting considerable decreases of 9 and 11 percentage points, respectively, quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.
“Purchasing index remains at the downturn. Slowing demand from U.S. and Europe markets has continued to soften hiring intentions in the Manufacturing sector,” Ms Chui explained.
Hong Kong is one of 41 countries and territories that take part in the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. In the Asia Pacific region, hiring plans continue to be strongest in India, Taiwan, New Zealand and Singapore, and weakest in Japan.
Globally, nearly 65,000 employers in 31 of the 41 countries and territories surveyed expect to add to their workforces in the first quarter of 2012. Forecasts are strongest in India, Brazil, Taiwan and Panama. In contrast, employers in Greece, Hungary and Italy report the weakest hiring forecasts.
[1] A “Net Employment Outlook” is calculated by subtracting those employers who plan to reduce staffing levels from those who plan to hire staff. A positive result indicates that more employers plan to increase rather than decrease staffing levels; a negative result reflects the opposite.
[2] Adjusted for seasonal variation
Paul Arkwright
Publisher
