The recently released Manpower Employment Outlook Survey indicates that Hong Kong employers forecast a favorable hiring climate in the third quarter of 2010. Once seasonal variations are removed from the survey data, Hong Kong’s net employment outlook stands at an upbeat +15%, remaining stable for three consecutive quarters, with employers reporting a considerable improvement of 16 percentage points year-over-year.
While 19 percent of respondents interviewed expect to add employees over the next three months—up 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter—only three percent of surveyed employers predict reducing staffing levels compared to two percent in the previous quarter. Seventy-four percent of the survey respondents expect to keep their current staff intact over the next quarter.
Lancy Chui, Managing Director, Manpower, expressed, “The survey results show that employment prospects have remained steady, but continue to remain upbeat—especially in comparison to 12 months ago. The gradual revival of the local business climate has helped to improve the job market as the latest unemployment rate decreased further to 4.4%, which is the lowest since Q4 2008.”
Employers in all six industry sectors anticipate positive hiring activity in Q3 2010. The most optimistic hiring intentions are reported by employers in the Mining and Construction and Services sectors, with Outlooks of +24% and +21%, respectively. Quarter-over-quarter, employers in four industry sectors report weaker hiring plans whilst year-over-year; employer confidence in all six industry sectors continues to strengthen.
Chui also noted, “The commencement of major infrastructure projects will improve employment prospects with the Construction sector, where job seekers should benefit from an active labor market. A concern of ours is that as hiring activities were particularly dynamic in Q1 and Q2, employers have already achieved majority headcounts to complete projects. Therefore, moving into Q3, labor demand may be somewhat smaller than that of supply.”
Employment prospects remain generally positive, particularly in the Banking and Services sectors where there is growing demand for talent with specific skill sets in private banking, wealth management, customer services, telemarketing, and frontline sales.
Hiring expectations in the Finance, Insurance & Real-estate sector strengthened. Employers report a respectable Outlook of +16%—a slight increase of two percentage points quarter-over-quarter and a notable improvement of 21 percentage points year-over-year. Elsewhere, Wholesale & Retail Trade employment prospects are also upbeat, with employers reporting a positive Outlook of +11%.
On the downside, employers in the Transportation & Utilities sector forecast the least optimistic hiring intentions, with a modest outlook of +1%. Government statistics indicate that both passenger volume and air-traffic movements have declined.
Prospects for job seekers in the Manufacturing sector still remain positive, with a mild outlook of +8%. Chui pointed out that there are factors that continue to temper greater employer optimism. Employer confidence in the long term will still hinge on the external business conditions. Employers remain cautious when adding to permanent staff. Strategically, it is good time for employers to consider managing a mix of permanent and contingent workers to accelerate their business performance, build talent capabilities, and keep fixed costs low.
The uncertain external trading environment, particularly the economic and financial market sentiment in Europe, exerts pressure on the Wholesale and Manufacturing sectors which weakens employment prospects (down one and five percentage points respectively quarter-over-quarter).
On the Retail Trade sector front, Hong Kong retail rents are expected to trend further up in the months ahead. Landlords are going to be tempted to increase rents as they see retailers benefit from an influx of shoppers from mainland China. This combines with the scarcity of prime units creating an ongoing cost consideration that impacts employers’ ability to hire.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey was conducted by interviewing 814 employers in Hong Kong and over 61,000 public and private employers worldwide to anticipate global hiring plans for future quarters.
Hong Kong is one of 36 countries and territories that take part in the Employment Outlook Survey. In the Asia Pacific region, employment prospects are strongest in India, Taiwan, China and Australia. Meanwhile, Japanese employers report the weakest job prospects in the region even though their outlook has increased in strength for four consecutive quarters.
Globally, employers in 31 of the 36 countries and territories surveyed expect to add to their workforces in the third quarter of 2010. Forecasts are strongest in India, Brazil, Taiwan, China, Peru and Australia. Hiring intentions are weakest in Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece.
Paul Arkwright
Publisher
