Survey reveals employer confidence in Q3 stability.
Employers in Hong Kong foresee payroll gains in Quarter 3 of 2012. Hong Kong’s employment outlook stands at an upbeat +14%, this according Manpower’s latest Employment Outlook Survey.
Just 3% of the 804 Hong Kong employers surveyed forecasted a decrease in staffing levels in the next quarter, while 18% predicted an increase. Meanwhile, 75% of employers surveyed expected no employment changes in payrolls, suggesting a high degree of stability in Q3 2012.
Employers in all six industry sectors surveyed said that they expected to increase staffing levels during the third quarter of 2012. Quarter-on-quarter, hiring prospects strengthened in five of the six industry sectors surveyed, while year-on-year the outlook declined in five of the six industry sectors.
Building up hopes
A positive third-quarter hiring environment is forecasted in the Mining & Construction sector, where the outlook stands at +19%. The outlook improves 7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but weakens by 3 percentage points year-on-year. Ms Lancy Chui, Managing Director of ManpowerGroup Hong Kong, Macau and Vietnam operations explained, “Major projects, such as the HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge and the Shatin to Central Link projects, have triggered a construction industry labour demand surge. Construction workers and experienced architects and engineers are sought after.”
West looking East
Upbeat hiring plans are also anticipated in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector (+18%). The outlook strengthens by 7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but declines by 6 percentage points year-on-year. Ms Chui commented, “With continued retail sales negativity in Europe; Hong Kong and, indeed, much of Asia should continue to enjoy strong growth as western retailers look to eastern markets for support. At the same time, retail sales surged considerably in the first part of the year, thanks to more spending by tourists and buoyant local consumer sentiment. The retail sector continues to experience a skills shortage, especially for knowledgeable front-line sales positions.”
Eurozone breeds caution
The hiring pace of the Finance, Real Estate & Insurance sector remains steady in the quarter ahead, with employers reporting an outlook of +17%—an improvement of 8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but a 9 percentage point decline year-on-year. Ms Chui expounded, “The lingering eurozone debt crisis continues to temper local hiring plans in the finance sector. As a result, some investment banks and financial institutions continue to adopt a cautious hiring approach. Conversely, private banking is stepping up its activity in seeking Mandarin-speaking talent with proven track records in order to serve mainland Chinese investors.”
Hong Kong tourist numbers up
Employers in the Services sector expect steady job growth on the next quarter, with an outlook of +16%. Quarter-on-quarter, sector employers report a moderate increase of 6 percentage points and a slight improvement of 3 percentage points year-on-year. Ms Chui noted, “Hiring expectations remained steady from last quarter in the Services sector, including catering, cleaning and security personnel services, as employers still face labour shortage challenges. According to Hong Kong Tourism Board statistics, the April visitor arrivals to Hong Kong exceeded over 3 million, representing a year-on-year increment of 14.4%.”
Manufacturing sector struggling
Employers in the Manufacturing sector report a conservative job forecast. The outlook stands weak at a modest +8%, with employers reporting a slight improvement of 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but a moderate decline of 7 percentage points year-on-year. Ms Chui explained, “The surging cost of labour and raw materials is exerting pressure on Hong Kong manufacturers with production plants in China. The less-than-optimistic outlook may be attributed to the fact that China’s PMI appears set for a seventh straight month of shrinkage and which will surely impact hiring plans.”
Exports continue to dwindle
The weakest employment expectations are reported by employers in the Transportation & Utilities sector (+7%); the outlook drops by 4 and 7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year respectively, and represents the third consecutive quarter of weakening demand. “Downward risks in the external environment remain as total exports of goods continued to trend downward in Q1 this year when compared to the same quarter last year. The gloomy picture continues to plague the global economic outlook, as well as hiring confidence of logistics and aviation companies,” Ms Chui explained.
Regional forecast
In the Asia Pacific region, hiring plans are strongest in India, Taiwan, Singapore and China and weakest in Australia and Japan. Globally, employers in 33 of the 41 countries surveyed and territories surveyed report varying degrees of positive hiring activity for the third quarter of 2012. Forecasts are strongest in India, Taiwan, Brazil, Turkey and Singapore and weakest in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Hungary.
Paul Arkwright
Publisher
